2010 Media and Marketing Predictions

Here are this year’s media predictions.  Last week, I took a look back at 2009’s to see how we did, click here to see the scorecard.  Here are a few other places to check out where we participated.

Junta42 - Over 100 predictions from 70 of the top content marketing minds in the world.

Folio Magazine - 115 (give or take) magazine and media predictions for 2010.

eMedia Vitals – Media Blogs We Love (includes the King Fish ThinkTank) and Nine Bold Predictions for 2010

Here are a few thoughts for next year:

2010 will be the year that content goes mobile in a big way.  Having a mobile strategy will no longer be a “nice to have”, but a requirement for media brands and custom content.  The success of the iPhone and Kindle has shown that there is an appetite for content to be read in a “third place” away from both home and office.

More and more pure play online companies will discover multi-channel marketing paired with content drives customer engagement.  Look for more online retailers to create “magalogs” pairing content and offers in an appealing environment using both print and digital formats.

Broadcasters (network and cable) will create more integrated online content and advertising programs for the so called “second screen”.  According to Reuters, Nielsen’s research shows that “57 percent of TV viewers in the U.S. who have Internet access use both mediums at the same time at least once a month. That translates to more than 128 million U.S. consumers.”

This opens the door to creative ties-ins for deeper content, social media connections and games/contests to extend a marketing campaign.

Consumers will slowly begin to accept that they will have to pay for some premium online content.  The decline of print advertising means that online content can no longer be subsidized.  It will only be successful with unique, relevant content such as hyper local news or brands such as the New York Times or Variety.  Basic news and opinion found in places such as Newsweek and Business Week stand little chance of collecting a fee for content because there are so many other sources for that information.

Twitter is leveling off as many people quit or abandon after a short time.  I see that trend continuing, though the idea of micro blogging is here to stay. It’s too effective a communications tools not to have a purpose.  It makes more sense integrated into something else rather than a stand-alone; and it is still a mystery how Twitter will make a profit.  I am losing some interest –a lot of tweets are just of the “look at me, I’m clever” variety or other self promotional nonsense.  The whole “social media” frenzy will slow down considerably as it becomes just another marketing tactic and media channel. The cottage industry of social media experts, consultants and dedicated agencies will wane.  It’s like when “e” was finally dropped from e-commerce and it became just another commerce channel.  We can now drop the “Social” and recognize it’s just another media channel.

Tiger Woods is done as a mainstream pitchman for at least the next 3-5 years, probably forever.  There was a level of recklessness to his behavior as he was done in by the new media avalanche (texts, tweets, face book postings, TMZ, You Tube) of evidence.  The speed of these viral networks is blinding and can end careers in a matter of a week.  It is possible Nike and golf equipment vendors could continue to use him, but I can’t imagine current sponsors such as Gillette, AT&T, Tag Heuer continuing to feature him in ads.  I think they will follow Accenture and start dropping him in January. For a good long while, when people see his image they will either snicker or think about porn.  Not good for selling razors, watches and consulting services. 

As of today President Obama has slipped beneath the 50% benchmark for job approval in almost every poll.  The common refrain among his supporters is that it is “all about the economy, and the same thing happened to Reagan, so nothing to see here”.  I think that analysis misses the mark and don’t think he will go past 52% or 53% approval anytime during 2010.  In fact it is likely he will stay below 50%.  Why?  Classic marketing mistake – the White House does not understand its audience (a center right country) and never moved from campaign mode (lead acquisition) to governing (customer retention).  The 2010 mid term elections are going to be a nasty battle with much media money spent.  The net result will be narrow but unsteady majorities for the Democrats in the House and Senate.   This will take the President down one of two roads.  Does he turn to the center like Clinton and get reelected, or stay left and get nothing done?