2009 Media Predictions – Scorecard and Results

Last year, I took a shot at 2009 media predictions.  Here is a summary of how they turned out – boths hits and misses.  Look here for 2010 predictions next week.

Prediction - The continued growth of web casting, virtual trade shows and online video will take a significant chunk of revenue from trade shows and live events during 2009.

Result – As reported by B2B, digital is flat while trade show and print revenue is way down. Print revenue fell 25.7% in the first three quarters of this year compared with the same period last year. Trade show revenue declined 19.2%, and digital revenue dipped 3.0%. Virtual trade shows remain hot – the combination of measureable ROI and lack of travel costs make them very attractive.

Prediction - The decline of the US auto industry will result in huge cut backs in print advertising from the big three, and several magazines will close as a result.  Local TV stations and newspapers will see big decreases in ad revenue as car dealerships close after GM kills Buick, Pontiac and Saturn and Ford also pares brands as part of a government bailout.

Result - The US Government actually bailed out GM and Chrysler, not Ford.  GM is killing Saturn, Pontiac, Saab and sold Hummer while keeping Buick.   Ad spending is way down and according to one count 383 magazines did close including Gourmet, Portfolio, Domino and Country Home.

Prediction - Several IT publications will follow the lead of PC Magazine and abandon their print issue to reposition themselves as online and events brands.  They will thrive once all the print overhead is removed.

Result - Not as many as I would have thought, but the print versions of these publications don’t carry very much weight any more.  The IT media companies are totally focused on online media and lead generation.  One brand I used to work on, VARBusiness did go to the great BPA Audit in the sky.

Prediction - Face book will explode and become a “must have” for professionals in 34-54 age group who will continue to blur the lines between personal and business life.

Result - This was a layup.  Face book started 2009 with 150 million users and could be at 350 million by the end of this year.  Just about everyone I know is currently on the site.  Except my wife, thank goodness.

Prediction - The big television networks will continue to become less relevant in the lives of Americans as they spend more time on niche cable networks and social media sites.  The 2009 fall season will produce zero new hits.  The continued penetration of DVR’s will further erode their advertising base and they will have to make major cutbacks.

Result - I was somewhat off base.  According to Variety, the new season was not bad and contained one buzz worthy/water cooler hit in ABC’s Modern Family – a laugh riot.  On the other hand the great Jay Leno at 10pm experiment doesn’t seem to be working out.  Shocker.  Not only is viewership down at 10pm on NBC, but research shows that DVR usage is up as people catch up on other recorded shows during that time slot.
 
Prediction - A major US daily newspaper will fold its print edition and go digital only.

Result – A few bit the dust including the Rocky Mountain Times and the Seattle Post Intelligencer went online only.  The big story was the New York Times Company playing chicken with the Boston Globe’s unions.  The Times essentially told the union to take their demanded cuts or they would close the paper which was on track to lose $50 million this year.  The union blinked and it is still publishing.  The NYT Company took the Globe off the market after bids came in around $35 million for the media property they purchased for a cool billion in 1993.

Prediction - Sarah Palin will write a book about her experiences during the 2008 campaign.  She will get a giant advance and it will go to #1 on the New York Times Bestseller list much to the dismay of New York Times.

Result – Home Run!!!  Her book hit the #1 in November and sold a million copies.  Huge crowds turned out for book signing and she did the usual media blitz round robin.  As expected, there was a cottage industry of Palin haters and endless opinion columns and blogs about “what her popularity means” and if she is running in 2012.  Interesting contrast to how President Obama is ending the year – the lowest approval rating for any President 10 months into his term and under 50% in both Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls.
 
Prediction - American Idol will see a strong decline in ratings - over commercialization and bland contestants killed the golden goose.

Result – The ratings did continue to decline for the season and the finale, but it is still the number one show on TV and a cash machine.  Once again AI had somewhat bland contestants with one very notable exception – Adam Lambert.  The jury is out on the long term success of the last two winners – David Cook and Kris Allen – two nondescript, moderately talented young men.  I don’t see either becoming a big star the way Carrie Underwood and Kelly Clarkson did before them.  The more interesting question is about Adam Lambert.  Is America ready to embrace an openly gay male rock star?  I say yes, but as the cliché says – time will tell.

Check in next week for 2010 predictions.  If you have any of your own, send them my way and I’ll post them with a link back to your site.