December 2009

Here are this year’s media predictions.  Last week, I took a look back at 2009’s to see how we did, click here to see the scorecard.  Here are a few other places to check out where we participated.

Junta42 - Over 100 predictions from 70 of the top content marketing minds in the world.

Folio Magazine - 115 (give or take) magazine and media predictions for 2010.

eMedia Vitals – Media Blogs We Love (includes the King Fish ThinkTank) and Nine Bold Predictions for 2010

Here are a few thoughts for next year:

2010 will be the year that content goes mobile in a big way.  Having a mobile strategy will no longer be a “nice to have”, but a requirement for media brands and custom content.  The success of the iPhone and Kindle has shown that there is an appetite for content to be read in a “third place” away from both home and office.

More and more pure play online companies will discover multi-channel marketing paired with content drives customer engagement.  Look for more online retailers to create “magalogs” pairing content and offers in an appealing environment using both print and digital formats.

Broadcasters (network and cable) will create more integrated online content and advertising programs for the so called “second screen”.  According to Reuters, Nielsen’s research shows that “57 percent of TV viewers in the U.S. who have Internet access use both mediums at the same time at least once a month. That translates to more than 128 million U.S. consumers.”

This opens the door to creative ties-ins for deeper content, social media connections and games/contests to extend a marketing campaign.

Consumers will slowly begin to accept that they will have to pay for some premium online content.  The decline of print advertising means that online content can no longer be subsidized.  It will only be successful with unique, relevant content such as hyper local news or brands such as the New York Times or Variety.  Basic news and opinion found in places such as Newsweek and Business Week stand little chance of collecting a fee for content because there are so many other sources for that information.

Twitter is leveling off as many people quit or abandon after a short time.  I see that trend continuing, though the idea of micro blogging is here to stay. It’s too effective a communications tools not to have a purpose.  It makes more sense integrated into something else rather than a stand-alone; and it is still a mystery how Twitter will make a profit.  I am losing some interest –a lot of tweets are just of the “look at me, I’m clever” variety or other self promotional nonsense.  The whole “social media” frenzy will slow down considerably as it becomes just another marketing tactic and media channel. The cottage industry of social media experts, consultants and dedicated agencies will wane.  It’s like when “e” was finally dropped from e-commerce and it became just another commerce channel.  We can now drop the “Social” and recognize it’s just another media channel.

Tiger Woods is done as a mainstream pitchman for at least the next 3-5 years, probably forever.  There was a level of recklessness to his behavior as he was done in by the new media avalanche (texts, tweets, face book postings, TMZ, You Tube) of evidence.  The speed of these viral networks is blinding and can end careers in a matter of a week.  It is possible Nike and golf equipment vendors could continue to use him, but I can’t imagine current sponsors such as Gillette, AT&T, Tag Heuer continuing to feature him in ads.  I think they will follow Accenture and start dropping him in January. For a good long while, when people see his image they will either snicker or think about porn.  Not good for selling razors, watches and consulting services. 

As of today President Obama has slipped beneath the 50% benchmark for job approval in almost every poll.  The common refrain among his supporters is that it is “all about the economy, and the same thing happened to Reagan, so nothing to see here”.  I think that analysis misses the mark and don’t think he will go past 52% or 53% approval anytime during 2010.  In fact it is likely he will stay below 50%.  Why?  Classic marketing mistake – the White House does not understand its audience (a center right country) and never moved from campaign mode (lead acquisition) to governing (customer retention).  The 2010 mid term elections are going to be a nasty battle with much media money spent.  The net result will be narrow but unsteady majorities for the Democrats in the House and Senate.   This will take the President down one of two roads.  Does he turn to the center like Clinton and get reelected, or stay left and get nothing done?

Last year, I took a shot at 2009 media predictions.  Here is a summary of how they turned out – boths hits and misses.  Look here for 2010 predictions next week.

Prediction - The continued growth of web casting, virtual trade shows and online video will take a significant chunk of revenue from trade shows and live events during 2009.

Result – As reported by B2B, digital is flat while trade show and print revenue is way down. Print revenue fell 25.7% in the first three quarters of this year compared with the same period last year. Trade show revenue declined 19.2%, and digital revenue dipped 3.0%. Virtual trade shows remain hot – the combination of measureable ROI and lack of travel costs make them very attractive.

Prediction - The decline of the US auto industry will result in huge cut backs in print advertising from the big three, and several magazines will close as a result.  Local TV stations and newspapers will see big decreases in ad revenue as car dealerships close after GM kills Buick, Pontiac and Saturn and Ford also pares brands as part of a government bailout.

Result - The US Government actually bailed out GM and Chrysler, not Ford.  GM is killing Saturn, Pontiac, Saab and sold Hummer while keeping Buick.   Ad spending is way down and according to one count 383 magazines did close including Gourmet, Portfolio, Domino and Country Home.

Prediction - Several IT publications will follow the lead of PC Magazine and abandon their print issue to reposition themselves as online and events brands.  They will thrive once all the print overhead is removed.

Result - Not as many as I would have thought, but the print versions of these publications don’t carry very much weight any more.  The IT media companies are totally focused on online media and lead generation.  One brand I used to work on, VARBusiness did go to the great BPA Audit in the sky.

Prediction - Face book will explode and become a “must have” for professionals in 34-54 age group who will continue to blur the lines between personal and business life.

Result - This was a layup.  Face book started 2009 with 150 million users and could be at 350 million by the end of this year.  Just about everyone I know is currently on the site.  Except my wife, thank goodness.

Prediction - The big television networks will continue to become less relevant in the lives of Americans as they spend more time on niche cable networks and social media sites.  The 2009 fall season will produce zero new hits.  The continued penetration of DVR’s will further erode their advertising base and they will have to make major cutbacks.

Result - I was somewhat off base.  According to Variety, the new season was not bad and contained one buzz worthy/water cooler hit in ABC’s Modern Family – a laugh riot.  On the other hand the great Jay Leno at 10pm experiment doesn’t seem to be working out.  Shocker.  Not only is viewership down at 10pm on NBC, but research shows that DVR usage is up as people catch up on other recorded shows during that time slot.
 
Prediction - A major US daily newspaper will fold its print edition and go digital only.

Result – A few bit the dust including the Rocky Mountain Times and the Seattle Post Intelligencer went online only.  The big story was the New York Times Company playing chicken with the Boston Globe’s unions.  The Times essentially told the union to take their demanded cuts or they would close the paper which was on track to lose $50 million this year.  The union blinked and it is still publishing.  The NYT Company took the Globe off the market after bids came in around $35 million for the media property they purchased for a cool billion in 1993.

Prediction - Sarah Palin will write a book about her experiences during the 2008 campaign.  She will get a giant advance and it will go to #1 on the New York Times Bestseller list much to the dismay of New York Times.

Result – Home Run!!!  Her book hit the #1 in November and sold a million copies.  Huge crowds turned out for book signing and she did the usual media blitz round robin.  As expected, there was a cottage industry of Palin haters and endless opinion columns and blogs about “what her popularity means” and if she is running in 2012.  Interesting contrast to how President Obama is ending the year – the lowest approval rating for any President 10 months into his term and under 50% in both Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls.
 
Prediction - American Idol will see a strong decline in ratings - over commercialization and bland contestants killed the golden goose.

Result – The ratings did continue to decline for the season and the finale, but it is still the number one show on TV and a cash machine.  Once again AI had somewhat bland contestants with one very notable exception – Adam Lambert.  The jury is out on the long term success of the last two winners – David Cook and Kris Allen – two nondescript, moderately talented young men.  I don’t see either becoming a big star the way Carrie Underwood and Kelly Clarkson did before them.  The more interesting question is about Adam Lambert.  Is America ready to embrace an openly gay male rock star?  I say yes, but as the cliché says – time will tell.

Check in next week for 2010 predictions.  If you have any of your own, send them my way and I’ll post them with a link back to your site.