Check out this article: “Why Advertising is failing on the Internet” written by Professor Eric Clemons of the University of Pennsylvania. He makes a case why an ad supported business model may not work over the long term on the Internet. One of his main themes is that pushing messages at consumers on the web is not a winning combination. Below is a excerpt:
“Pushing a message at a potential customer when it has not been requested and when the consumer is in the midst of something else on the net, will fail as a major revenue source for most internet sites. This is particularly true when the consumer knows that the sponsor of the ad has paid to have this information, which was verified by no one, thrust at him. The net will find monetization models and these will be different from the advertising models used by mass media, just as the models used by mass media were different from the monetization models of theater and sporting events before them. Indeed, there has to be some way to create websites that do other than provide free access to content, some of it proprietary, some of it licensed, and some of it stolen, and funded by advertising”
In addition he thinks that ads will fail because of the following: consumers don’t trust ads, nor do they want them. And, they don’t use advertising for research on the web since there are so many other sources of information available.
He goes on to talk about some models that may work, but I think the critical point is that marketers can’t rely on concepts and tactics that worked off line by merely porting them online. It makes more sense to build a relationship of trust with customers and prospects rather than jamming advertising at them. Additionally, marketers should take advantage of the fact that people use the Internet to search for content and information. Unlike magazines where people browse passively, the Internet is interactive and active.
It is that dynamic that makes the web ideal for content marketing and private custom media channels. Talking directly to consumers with relevant content provides them with information and builds trust. When marketing on the web, content marketing is a better tool to engage consumers than pushing out advertising.

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June 30, 2009 at 2:20 am
Clint
I think Clemons is correct when he says that advertising will lose its influence in the market. And I think you’re right (if I’m reading you correctly), that the advertising that does survive will basically have to be customized (based on keywords, browsing behavior, demographics, etc.)
I also wrote a reaction Clemons’ piece:
http://www.whyweworry.com/blog/2009/06/29/why-advertising-will-fail-on-the-internet/