December 2008

Cam Brown, President
King Fish Media

2009 will feature the greatest redirect in marketing approach that the media industry has seen since the explosive growth of cable television (and its subsequent usage opportunities that caused planning confusion in the 1980s and early 90s) . Looking forward, savvy marketers will broker deals with media companies not for reduced page rates or air time, but for their subscriber list – the more selects available, the better. Media companies will re-structure their sales teams, reducing the workforce of 30 and 40-something reps and elevating the most insightful marketers.

This new staff will gain immediate credibility with advertising partners who will not view them as yet another new face pitching the same old story, but as a strategic marketer identifying the most targeted database possible from their circ files, and guiding the best practices for usage of that file. The story of targeted efficiency over reach, and reduced top line advertising revenue in exchange for a smarter, more collaborative client relationship, is the story of 2009 and beyond.

Gordon Plutsky, Director of Marketing
King Fish Media

Custom Media, across all platforms, will be one of the few areas that will grow in revenue in 2009 thanks to two important trends:

    -  Companies becoming publishers and producing their own content to talk directly to customers and prospects.

   -   The need for more measurable media and high ROI during a recession.

The continued growth of web casting, virtual trade shows and online video will take a significant chunk of revenue from trade shows and live events during 2009.

The decline of the US auto industry will result in huge cut backs in print advertising from the big three, and several magazines will close as a result.  Local TV stations and newspapers will see big decreases in ad revenue as car dealerships close after GM kills Buick, Pontiac and Saturn and Ford also pares brands as part of a government bailout.

Several IT publications will follow the lead of PC Magazine and abandon their print issue to reposition themselves as online and events brands.  They will thrive once all the print overhead is removed.

Facebook will explode and become a “must have” for professionals in 34-54 age group who will continue to blur the lines between personal and business life.

The big television networks will continue to become less relevant in the lives of Americans as they spend more time on niche cable networks and social media sites.  The 2009 fall season will produce zero new hits.  The continued penetration of DVR’s will further erode their advertising base and they will have to make major cutbacks.

A major US daily newspaper will fold its print edition and go digital only.

Sarah Palin will write a book about her experiences during the 2008 campaign.  She will get a giant advance and it will go to #1 on the New York Times Bestseller list much to the dismay of New York Times.

American Idol will see a strong decline in ratings - over commercialization and bland contestants killed the golden goose.

Kathleen Martin
RocketComm

The markets will continue to ride the roller coaster through the third quarter. Big business will continue to contract but there will be explosive growth in small service firms and mid size companies. Contracting will be the norm versus traditional company employment.

Social media will continue to grow and the challenge in 2009 will be how to manage the scale and depth of your social networks and leverage the various media options for maximum return. As customers accept the flashing boxes on the sidebar and scrolling headers the media agencies will be looking for new ways to gain not only mind share but retention in a non-retentive environment.

I also think Elvis and Marilyn Monroe have a pretty good chance of being invited to the inauguration and we will see another Kennedy in the senate.

Joe Pulizzi
Junta42

More and more media companies will shed unprofitable titles in certain verticals to stay profitable and solvent. This will open up opportunities for corporate brands to become the content providers for those industries.  I wouldn’t be surprised if you started seeing corporate brands with some cash in the bank buy out small, niche media properties as they work to build out their content strategies.

Traditional media spend will continue to drop as corporate marketers will lean on web statistics for ROI. Marketers will take half of what they are pulling out of traditional and spend on content-driven activities, social media, and other more “experimental” media. Some “forward-looking” brands will see an opportunity to go back to targeted print activities, such as custom magazines and customer newsletters, to differentiate themselves from the barrage of email marketers. 

 What are your predictions?  Send them to gplutsky@kingfishmedia.com and we will post them or leave a comment. 
 

I just came across some data that shows for the first time in seven years, B2B trade show revenues declined, by 3.7% in the first three quarters of 2008 (source: ABM).  Of course, most people point to the recession as the reason – cut backs in both marketing expenditures and travel restrictions.  Surely, these are a factor, but not really telling the whole story.  It is more than coincidence that webcasting and virtual trade shows are a hot commodity and growing.  According to Frost and Sullivan the webcasting industry was worth $83.3 million in 2007 and is set to grow more than 28.2%. By 2014, they predict it to be a $3.4 billion market.

It is easy to see how cutbacks in travel can help webcasting, but that is just a small part of why it is growing.  Webcasting is one of the best lead generation mechanisms, if not the best, available today in the B2B world.  When someone attends your webcast they are raising their hand and self selecting themselves to view your content and message.  They are committing nearly an hour of their time to your message – the ultimate in content based permission marketing.  Additionally, you get incredible reporting data to know specifically who the prospects are and what actions they took during the webcast which often lets you know where they are within the buying process.  And, if you choose a live Q&A session, you can interact with dozens of potential customers in a personal dialog.  All of this comes at a pretty modest cost compared to traditional in person tradeshows. 

As someone who has once had the pleasure of managing their company’s trade show presence, I can tell you it is a very expensive operation.  The whole operation is designed to separate you from your budget – the space, the booth itself, power, T1 line, staffing, carpeting, plants, shipping and dealing with unions and their rules and rates.  All for the pleasure of standing in a tacky booth waiting for people to come by looking for free stuff and engage you with small talk.  The quality of leads of people who happen to amble by your booth can not compare with someone registering and attending your webcast – and engaging with your content. 

In many industries trade shows have an important role, but at what cost.  Buyers prefer to get content at their desks and marketers want a high return on their lead gen efforts.  Both of those trends point to the reason why webcasting is one of the fastest growing B2B marketing vehicles and it should prosper during tough economic times.

Some very interesting new data out from emarketer this week.  Several large investment banks and media analysts are predicting a significant drop in overall US advertising in 2009.  That is not unexpected given the recession and the lack of a presidential election and Olympic Games in 2009.  The big story in these numbers is the change in share of specific types of media in US ad spending.  The traditional methods of broadcast (TV and radio) and print (newspapers and magazine) are on the decline while the internet and Custom Publishing/Custom Media is on the rise.  The reason is simple - measurability.  Marketers are shifting their dollars to places where they can measure the return on their investment in addition to having control over the environment.  Additionally, Custom Media is ideal to talk to your current customers in addition to prospects with specific messages for each.  Print and broadcast does not give you the ability to target customers vs. prospects nor does it give you a measurable return.  Telling your story with custom content is a much better way to build a relationship with customers than blasting ads at them when they are watching TV or reading a newspaper. 

For the cost of a couple of ads in a major newspaper or during a prime time show you can create a quarterly custom magazine, or a custom web site or a series of live or interactive events with your own content.  It is a decision more and more companies are making. 

If you project current trends, it is easy to see how by 2013 the internet and custom media will be the two most popular marketing vehicles available to companies.  It is not hard to understand why media companies heavily dependent on print media are having fits trying to change their business models.  The latest is the development is about Newsweek who is currently losing money.  They plan to slash their rate base, keep ads dollars up, abandon news and become more of a thought leader publication.  Name me another magazine that pulled off that kind of rapid and radical transition.  My guess is that by this time next year, they will be losing more money than they are now.  It is not about the circ or the edit mission, it is about smart money moving away from print advertising to interactive and custom media and there is nothing Newsweek or anyone can do about that.

I covered lead gen in my latest posting on Online Marketing for Marketers .  Specifically, I wrote about cost per lead (CPL) online lead generation for B2B marketers.  At King Fish we use it often as a tool for driving registrants to webcasts and virtual trade shows.  Here is the posting:

The need for ROI-based online marketing will be ever greater in 2009 as financials types will be scrutinizing every marketing dollar and looking for cuts.  As I’m sure you know, marketing is one of the first to get some budget shaving—but of course your sales people are still looking for fresh leads in the pipeline and they’re expecting you to help.

If you have not fully embraced online lead generation and cost-per-lead (CPL) programs now is the time.  The era of email list rental and blasting as an online lead acquisition tool is nearing an end.  The vast majority of your outbound email winds up in spam boxes or get deleted.  Media (both print and online) companies have had it good by renting email names at high rates and guaranteeing no results.  It is time to ask them to do business in a new way.  Ask them for CPL programs so both parties have skin in the game, and you will guarantee yourself qualified leads from your online efforts.  It will likely cost more at first, but it is worth it.  Almost all of the big players in IT media are doing online lead gen, and doing it well.  The CPL model is starting to make the move into non-tech B2B media.  Here are a couple of tips we have found to be successful using online lead gen/CPL to generate qualified sales leads for our clients:

1. It works best when taking advantage of the relationship potential customers have with a web site and/or media brand.  You get the affinity and halo effect, so choose leading media brands for your efforts.

2. Use content as the offer – interactive events and webcasts work very well as does downloadable white papers and interactive ebooks.  Make it worth the prospect’s while to give up their name and email address and start to build a permission relationship.

3. Use third party independent content if possible, especially research that is not generally available.

4. Use strong filters by using landing pages with specific questions to get only the selects you want.  It could add cost, but also worth it to give your sales team a more qualified leads.

5. Track the results closely and keep in close contact with the media company on the volume and quantity of the leads being generated through online efforts.

Moving your online lead generation efforts to a CPL model will generate significant higher returns in the long run and keep your sales pipeline full during a challenging year.

The Detroit Three are back in Washington, D.C. again.  Originally, they asked for $25B but after careful review and creating plans to put their businesses back on track they are now up to $34B.

It is obvious that what has always been done will not work so I posed the question “how would you reorganize the auto industry” to a group of marketing professionals.  The answers were eye opening.

Only one person felt the companies should be bailed out (and they work with the auto makers).  Everyone else had suggestions from Chapter 11 to just letting this take its natural course as a free economy does.

The responses are clear though – the auto industry must follow these simple steps:
• Understand your customer and market
• Understand your competitors
• Lower your costs: negotiate outdated contracts, realign salaries and bonuses
• Invest in new technology

When you look at this list, the first two items are in the control of marketing in most organizations.  Operations owns the third, and the fourth is combination of marketing, operations, engineering and finance.

In the end I think the answer is pretty clear, we need as a country to assist the big three automakers. Even if we help them fail through consolidation, reorganization or even loans.  What we cannot agree to is just opening the checkbook without a series of measurable checkpoints and accountability. 

Let me share some of the responses I received.  Feel free to add yours to the list.

• Maybe the first question is “would” you save the auto industry? Surely if an industry is no longer able to sustain itself, maybe it is no longer viable in its present form or there are too many suppliers servicing too small a market - then the ‘kindest’ thing to do in the long run is to let it die or change organically (the most viable and healthiest parts will morph into something that there is a market for) Darwinism for business ? I do appreciate that this is a very simplistic view and such a move will have massive repercussions, but worth thinking about.

• Mainframes have evolved into distributed computing - much more powerful. The Big Three; let them die - let the remaining assets be utilized by the brightest minds in the U.S. automobile industry and watch the industry be revolutionized. The short term pain of cutting the losses and investing assets into our future auto industry makes sense, and those leading this transformation can redefine the standards in automobile manufacturing and put America back on top where we belong. This advancement in computing has changed the world and the principles behind this evolution can be applied to new business models. Big corporations are fighting to stay alive - what our business sector needs is American innovation and the American Entrepreneurial Mindset. I’ll put my money on a thousand innovators over senseless corporate giants any day!

• The car industry is still making candles long after the light bulb has taken over. Heck, we’ve moved on to better, more efficient light bulbs.

• US automakers hands are tied in many cases because foreign auto makers have advantageous support through their home governments (i.e. the Japanese government underwrites much of the R&D costs for Japanese automakers)

US quality, which for a time was sub-par, has now reached a point where it’s competitive with the industry. It’s difficult to try and spread that message without having people accuse you of practicing ‘typical PR spin’ (though it’s not).

You’d be surprised to know how many other parts of the US economy would fail without the $’s coming out of the auto industry. Basically the entire Midwest would be down the tubes for good. And the failure of GM or Ford would likely cause the other to fail, as well, meaning saving one means saving both (at least for the short term).

Why is it okay to bail out banking industries and not the auto industry? The auto industry is equally tied (and has taken no more and no fewer liberties in how they treat their customers, as well) to the economic base of our country, but people for some reason have a harder time acknowledging this fact.

• I used to work in automotive marketing, and watching it’s decline has been very sad for me to see. Ford and GM have wasted far too much time competing against one another - and have lost share to Toyota, Nissan, Honda, and all the major players while doing so. If one of the two would have made the decision to compete against these global competitors instead of each other - that one would be in a great position. Even the spots now are Ford Vs. GM. Ford spending millions on new F-150 ads, while GM promotes their Silverado. Guess what? No one cares anymore. You are talking to yourselves.

The only solution I see is a very painful one. GM and Ford merge to become a relevant global competitor. Tool plants to make one great truck combining both companies technologies. Tool other plants to make great cars. Consolidation is needed to compete on a global scale - the big three needs to consolidate now, or die a slow, painful death.

This solution is painful. Short term, it would be horrible for Detroit. The loss of jobs would be at a very large scale. Keep the best. Lose the rest. Then develop a global powerhouse that can compete on a global scale - with World class management, World class cars and trucks, the support and intelligence of both companies.

Yes - painful short term. But if Detroit wishes to pass the torch to the next generation, the decision needs to be made and fast. Can management swallow their pride?