October 2008

Here are the final predictions on the Presidential election from numerous Think Tank contributors.  We don’t want to be like the one-sided mainstream media, so in the interest in being fair and balanced here are a variety of opinions and predictions.

Check back here after the election for the post-mortem on the actual results.

Please take the time to read through and please comment or send me your own prediction to gplutsky@kingfishmedia.com and we’ll post them.

Sam Whitmore, Media Survey

Barack Obama will win by five percentage points in the popular vote and with a plurality of between 40 and 50 votes in the Electoral College.

The Senate will go 58-42 in favor of the Democrats.

Sarah Palin will be another winner, as portrayed on Fox News. Fox will side with her in its coverage of the rift that developed between her and John McCain. Her groundwork for 2012 will begin to be laid on Election Night.

Joe Pulizzi, Junta 42

Whether you lean more to the right or to the left, this election if firmly focused on the economy.  If you look at the history of US elections, when the economy is the #1 issue going into the election, there is almost always a change in party, or a “throw the bums out” philosophy. Over the past couple weeks; you’ve seen McCain work to distance himself as much as possible from the Bush administration to try to combat this issue. Nonetheless, it’s pretty clear that Obama will take the election, most likely by a significant margin considering the severity of the economic crisis.

Although there are many important issues being discussed by both parties (health care, abortion rights, Iraq), this election comes down to this one issue.  My prediction, with just a few days until the election, is that Obama will win the popular vote by at least eight percentage points, and take the electoral vote by amassing 363 total electoral votes to McCain’s 175.

Gretel Going, Channel V Media

As someone who is more concerned with the U.S.’s global relations than my own portfolio; who sees more importance in caring for those in need than buying myself yet another house; and who wants to uphold the freedom of choice that this nation was founded upon rather than convincing everyone that my way is the right way, I want Obama to win…and by a landslide.

If he wins by only a small margin it doesn’t send out the message that America’s not happy with the status quo. Considering how the rest of the globe views us—and how much they’re affected by our actions (and us by theirs)—I think it’s important that we send this message out loud and clear.

So while I’d love for Obama’s win to dramatically reflect this sentiment, I think he’ll only win by a hair. I’ll take what I can get, though.

Gordon Plutsky, King Fish Media

It is stunning to think that in a few days we may be electing a president who is the most liberal member of the senate, has socialist ideas on wealth, has questionable past associations and possesses a significant lack of experience and accomplishments.  To top it all off he is a black Ivy Leaguer with the middle name of Hussein.  It sounds like a movie script. Yet, the polls have him ahead and he is likely to win.  How did we get to this point? Let us count the ways.

He is not a Republican nor named George Bush.  All Bush II did was preside over an unpopular bungled war, the Katrina mess and an economic collapse – Quite a nice piece of work, cowboy.  (Don’t blame me, I voted for Gore and Kerry)

By opting out of the federal campaign finance system Obama has raised and spent over three times what McCain had at his disposal.  This advantage has allowed him to carpet bomb ads and build strong local organizations. (Prediction alert – In 2009, a scandal will erupt around the type and nature of some his smaller contributors who’s names are not being reported)  The Washington Post has the story here.

John McCain, while an inspiring person is not an inspiring candidate.  And, he is not the candidate of the base of his party who never embraced him.  What happened to the right wing “values” voters who helped elect Bush twice?  Will they show up on Nov 4th?  If not for Sarah Palin and her appeal to the right McCain would be down 15 points.  She is drawing huge crowds everywhere, well, except for Massachusetts and Manhattan – home base of the liberal elite.

Barack the Wealth Spreader has used class warfare in the way of promised tax cuts and other goodies for “working people” while demonizing “rich” people and businesses.  Obama has leveraged envy and resentment for all it is worth.  Ask not what you can do for your country; ask what Barack can do for you.

   The O-Man on Casual Campaign Fridays

The end of journalism from the mainstream media as we knew it in the form of cheerleading for Obama. They fell for his message of hope n’ change like a teenage girl in love.  The vast majority of the media has been in the tank for him and did the dirty work to discredit his opponents.  First it was Hilary Clinton and then McCain before the brutalization of Gov. Palin.  Joe the Plumber and Bristol Palin were scrutinized more than Obama’s history with Bill Ayers.  It is beyond me why media business models (newspapers, magazines and broadcast networks) that are in real trouble chose to alienate half the county.  In the long term, this will not work out well for the national media.  They have lost all credibility.

And the biggest reason – the timing of the collapse of the finance and banking industry a few weeks before the election was probably point, game and match.  The drop in the stock market accompanied McCain down in the polls.  Books will eventually be written about the causes, but for right now, it is perceived to be the fault of Bush and the Republicans in general.  The general sentiment is to throw the Republicans out of office and give Obama a chance – this is a very legitimate rationale.  This fortunate timing is the reason why he may become the first Democrat in 44 years to top 50% in the popular vote.  The depths of the economic bad news will likely bring in voters who would never vote for Obama under normal circumstances.

The combination of Bush, the fundraising advantage, media bias and current economy are virtually impossible to beat.  However, there is one thought that is haunting me and that is Obama’s performance in the popular vote in the democratic primary vs. Hillary Clinton.  She beat him consistently down the stretch and would have won the nomination if there were a few more states left to contest.  In many of the big swing states the undecided voters broke for Clinton.  McCain has a history of closing strong and the polls are tightening after Obama took a big lead a few weeks ago.  Obama, who has not been in many tough fights during his charmed life, may not be a closer.  For these reasons I think it will be tighter than the polls indicate.  I am calling the popular vote for Obama 51.5 – 48.5, and the electoral votes 311-227.

This election battle will be over but not the war. Being the opposition party (and getting Bush off their backs) will energize the Republicans and conservative base.  The race for 2012 begins on November 5th.  Governors Palin, Jindal, Pawlenty, Huckabee and Romney, please start your engines.  However, if McCain pulls it off, Hillary Clinton lives to run another day.  Close your eyes and imagine this – October 5th, 2012 and Luke Russert is moderating a Presidential debate between VP Sarah Palin and Sen. Hillary Clinton.  That would be some sweet Karma.

Speaking of Sarah Barracuda, here is my talented wife Susan’s entry into her company’s pumpkin carving content.  It speaks for itself.

Larry Walsh, Ziff Davis Enterprise

The lead headline of the Nov. 5 New York Times will read “McCain Wins, Obama Launches 2012 Presidential Bid.” 

The headline might as likely read, “Obama Captures White House, GOP Aims to Capture House in 2010.”

In the closing days of the 2008 Presidential election season, one that began more than 24 months ago, predicting a winner is an invitation to foolishness. Obama/Biden is the likely winner, given the trending and momentum, but McCain/Palin show signs of closing the gaps in key battleground states in the final stretch. The final outcome: too close to call. The pundits are probably correct that the sheer volume of new voters and the anticipated record-high turn outs will likely break all of the previous statistical polling models.

But think about the previous time reference: 24-month road to the White House. Our Canadian neighbors dissolved their government, called for elections, launched a multi-party nationwide campaign and elected new leadership in a period of weeks. Americans, on the other hand, have created a system that will likely result in the perpetual presidential campaign. No sooner we cast our ballots will we immediately see contenders throw their hats into the ring for the next round of polling.

Should Obama carry the mantle of the Democratic party back to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, we’ll see Sarah Palin’s profile permanently elevated to national political leadership and Joe Biden positioned as the guardian of the Democratic leadership in Congress. And with every speech, every policy brief and every piece of legislation, Obama will be selling himself for another term in office.

Should McCain mount a miracle comeback, he will be charged as the caretaker of the GOP leadership and setting up the White House for a successor. Perhaps that successor will be Sarah Palin, but more than likely Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee or some other rising star.

In this new age of absurd politics, the American people lose because they will be overexposed and manipulated by a continuous stream political marketing designed to force reactionary decisions rather than long-term policy direction. “Change We Need” and “Country First” are not strategies, but taglines. And, sadly, those taglines are now being mistaken as positions and substance.

Assume Pennsylvania stays blue; Obama will take the White House with a 5 percent gross national vote margin and 300+ electoral votes. And with that the 2012 presidential campaign will begin immediately. I might as well cast my ballot in early voting now.

Brad Ketchum, King Fish Media

Definition of “change” (or changed, chang•ing, chang•es)
As defined by Answer.com in association with Webster’s Dictionary

Verb:
          
1. To cause to be different: change the spelling of a word.
2. To give a completely different form or appearance to; transform:changed the yard into a garden.
3. To give and receive reciprocally; interchange: change places.
4. To exchange for or replace with another, usually of the same kind orcategory: change one’s name; a light that changes colors.

Change is a word that has come to define the 2008 election and by itself, the very meaning of the word has come to represent one party’s entire platform. The platform for “change.”  But as we all know, change for change’s sake really doesn’t accomplish anything as the definitions above make quite clear: “to cause to be different; to give a completely different form or appearance; to exchange or replace with another, usually of the same kind or category.”

Clearly, no matter who is elected, they certainly will look different in form and appearance from the current administration. But we shouldn’t elect our President based on appearance, their oratory skills, the form they assume or how much they spend on advertising. We need to elect a President that views the current situation as one that needs fixing and improving in order to compete in a challenging global economy and environment. We don’t need government to be bigger, to tell us what to do with our money, to spend more of our money or to merely make change for change’s sake. Change needs to happen as a byproduct of steering this country back on course, not as a platform bereft of sound decision-making, ideals and understanding.

If we’re going to change the way government does business, change has to actually mean something. It has to be supported by ideas, theories, and facts. To merely elect a President who promises change isn’t much different then deciding when to remodel the bathroom. The bathroom is functional, serves its purpose well but its time for a “change.” The thinking is that if we change it, everything will not only look nicer (that olive green sink—yikes), but somehow will work better. But will it?

No matter whom you vote for in this year’s election, don’t mistake change for good or better. We all know that change means many things. Some good and some bad. Rather, vote for the candidate you think has the experience, ideas, values and facts that will help lead this country into the next decade. Do your homework. After all, that new sink might look a lot nicer, but in the end, it can still get plugged.

I have to believe rational minds will prevail and change for change’s sake loses. McCain by a stiff arm’s length.

Kate Fleming, Channel V Media

I’m sure I’m supposed to come down firmly on one side or the other, but right now I’m pretty firmly stuck between my optimist and my pessimist selves.

Optimistically—and, bizarrely enough, rationally—Obama wins on Tuesday.  Key groups that he has rallied—young people, African Americans—turn out in historic and unprecedented numbers to move things decisively in Obama’s favor.  Although there are protests from Republicans about voter fraud and issues at the polls, these are no match for the basic fact that Obama secured a clear and decisive victory.

Now for my pessimist self:  in this self’s brain, ominous scenarios keep swirling.  Many first-time voters, a majority of whom are Obama supporters, arrive at the polls to find challenges to their registrations, people are turned away at overcrowded polling stations (more likely to be in urban—and therefore—Democratic  strongholds), and we see something akin to 2000. Supposedly energized young voters stay at home.  And another 2000 repeat:  Obama wins the popular vote, but John McCain wins the Electoral College.  At which point I, along with millions of others Americans, descend on Washington for the largest protest in years.  But it makes no difference. 

McCain keels over days after he is sworn into office. President Palin, Todd, and the whole Palin clan take over the White House, and bring “Wasilla Main Street,” “Real American” values (none of your fancy “education” for us, dontcha know) to the country.  Suddenly, W looks like a wise leader.

I won’t believe an Obama victory until I see it!

Cameron Brown, King Fish Media

President, John McCain, by 17,200 votes as he wins NC, Indiana and Pennsylvania.

Tim Coffin

President, John McCain, with 51% of the popular vote

Colleen Brown

President, Obama by 10,500 votes

Brian Bucky

Obama - 54%
McCain - 43%
Ralph Nader - 3%

Ekem

Obama - 59%
McCain - 39%
Other - 2%

Kathleen Martin, RocketCom

Winners and Losers

No matter what your thoughts are related to the candidates this year, there are going to be some winners and losers this November 4th.
 
On the top of my loser list would be the majority of reporters in the media.  They have clearly demonstrated that neither truth nor facts are required for a news story.
    
Hollywood will also find itself on the worst dressed list for this election season.  Apparently playing a politician or person of importance on television has left these individuals delusional when it comes to their influence on the majority of voters.
 
Topping the winner list would be democracy.  With record turnouts expected at the polls and early voting lines being opened to allow all registered Americans to vote, the democratic process remains alive and well in the United States.
 
Each of us will also be winners.  While we may be paying more in taxes, healthcare, gas, groceries or anything else we purchase at least the campaign commercials are over.

Kimberly Jackson, King Fish Media

I’m Gonna Miss Sarah - er uh Tina Fey!

Five days till voting and I have just one thing to say:  I am really going to miss Tina Fey.  My favorite part about this election has been the resurgence of Saturday Night Live.  Our country may have needed change, but we also needed a good laugh.  Talk about delivering content that was just what the Comedy Doctor ordered!

Now for the important part: my prognostication for the election.  It was Tim Russert (boy do I miss him) who said “Florida! Florida! Florida!”  My prediction is “Ohio! Ohio! Ohio!  Ohioans have picked winners every year since 1944 EXCEPT for 1960 when they chose Nixon over Kennedy.  I am predicting Obama by a touchdown, 7% points overall across the country with a big win in Ohio.  I also am swinging out and calling Florida and North Carolina as Blue, not dark Blue, but Blue enough to add to the overall point totals.

And as the token mom in the group, I am going to say to my friends and colleagues what I say to may kids, regardless of the outcome.  I didn’t vote for George Bush and my children know that.  One day, one of them called George Bush a bad president and a litter bug.  (For a 7 year old that was a real insult!)  I told them they were not allowed to say mean things about the President especially if they couldn’t prove that the comments were true.  They countered with “but mom you didn’t vote for him, so you must not like him!”  I explained to them all that no matter who I vote for and whether or not I like them - the person who wins is MY President too.  I don’t have to agree with him/her but he/she gets my respect because it is a very hard job to be President and we should be grateful for their service.  No matter what, we have two Americans who love this country so much that they are willing to work around the clock for the next  4-8 years (for much less money than your average CEO) in service to our county and in dedication of their lives to the American people. 

So Sarah Palin, have fun back in Alaska.  Somehow I believe that we haven’t seen the last of your folksy-good ol’ self.  Remember that Obama started off with a big night at the DNC 4 years ago and it has catapulted him to greatness.  Keep your rented wardrobe handy, you may need it again soon!
 

I am sure that by now you have perfected your “about me” and “profile” pages on all of your social networks.  You have opened yourself to networking outside of your known circle and you are sending personal notes when you extend or accept invitation.  Your network of contacts has grown from hundreds to thousands of business professionals.

During this process you may have noticed that a large number of both corporate and private recruiters are looking to connect.  Recruiters are by nature active networkers.  They understand that they may meet the next great hire directly or indirectly through their network. Recruiters are experts at turning their contacts in leads.

So how do you do this?  I recommend three easy steps:

1.  Open a conversation with each of your contacts.  As I previously mentioned I respond to each invitation with a personal message.  I do have a form message that I personalize based on the profile of the individual.  I do the same with invitations.  I share what I do and what I am looking for.  I always ask for the business.  I am networking to grown my business.

2. Have “free” items available.  White papers, links to your blogs or anything that will share your expertise with the potential lead.  This is a validation process for them.

3. Set telephone calls to follow up individually.  I may spend 4-5 hours a week networking on line, but I spend an additional 8-9 hours in follow up calls and sending out information to prospective clients.

LinkedIn has added discussion functions to each of its groups.  You can send out a question or even a specific job request to the group.  This is also an excellent place for you to answer questions and position yourself as the expert in a specific area.  If in responding to a question you see an opportunity to ask for the business I often choose a “private reply” versus and open posting.  This allows me to contact the individual directly and share with them the benefits of my company and how I can assist them with their specific question or need.

Ready to jump offline and add an in person social networking option?  I recommend BNI . BNI offers everyone an opportunity to grow their business through referrals.  I use BNI to supplement by Facebook and LinkedIn communities and increase my local area leads.

Careful feeding, watering and farming of your contacts can turn your social network contacts in leads and revenue for your business. 

It now seems clear that we are heading into rough waters next year.  You can see the slowdown everywhere.  It will be interesting to watch how marketers respond to the challenge.  Some will overreact, shut things down and go dark to save money.  Yes, you will save money, but you are also sending a signal to prospects, customers and competitors that you are nervous and perhaps a company that will not be around for the long haul.  Other companies will just continue bad habits like overspending on “branding” and expensive, hard to measure ads in rented media such as broadcast television and print.  However, I think the smart companies will be opportunistic by mining their most valuable asset – their customer database.

This is a great time to talk to your customers with your own private media channel and accomplish two important objectives.  First, you can firm up their support and make sure they have a strong affinity for your company, and won’t be swayed to leave for a cheaper product or service.   More importantly, it is an opportunity to earn incremental revenue from a group of people who you have already acquired and sold as customers.  Now it is time to reap the reward of the investment you made to make that person a customer. 

This week I received a mailing at home from a company who does a great job of cultivating their customer base – Lowe’s – the home improvement store.  As a homeowner I am a pretty regular customer, and I prefer it to Home Depot, mainly because of the customer service and nicer atmosphere of the stores.  Recently I bought a storm door and had Lowe’s installed it for me since I am completely useless in that area.  I must have received 10 calls from Lowes and the contractor they hired to set up the appointment, thank me for the purchase and make sure I was satisfied with the installation job.  I was pretty impressed, and it left me with a great experience and strong affinity towards Lowe’s.

The mailing I received was sent to current customers and had two main messages.  One was to send two gift cards – one for $10 off a $50 purchase and the other was $25 off of a $250 purchase.  They called them “Project Starters” which is an excellent idea. The cards are a great method to give someone the motivation to get into a store and spend money with Lowe’s.  The other message was near and dear to my heart.  It was an offer to subscribe to one of three custom media magazine’s that Lowe’s produces for customers.  They gave a web address and an 800 number to subscribe and see back issues on the site.

Lowe’s is doing a great job of creating a content based private media channel to retain and market to their customer base.  When you combine that effort with superior customer service, you have a company that will do fine even during a housing and economic downturn.  I wonder how many companies will follow Lowe’s down the Private Media path of content marketing.  It is much harder than just going dark or the status quo, but the payoff is significantly greater.  There is opportunity in chaos and the companies who are smart in 2009 will emerge even stronger for the recovery.

I’d like to introduce a new contributor to the King Fish Think Tank  - Kathleen Martin, CEO, RocketComm.  Kathleen is speaker, presenter and marketing professional with a track record for producing programs that generate revenue and exceed goals.  I have known her for several years going back to when I was running a marketing department for a traditional media company and she was a customer in her role as a communications manager for a Fortune 500 technology manufacturer.  Kathleen was one of my favorite clients because she is a master at using both new and traditional media to create ROI driven integrated solutions.  Now as CEO of her own company she is spreading her knowledge and experience with the world. – Gordon Plutsky, King Fish Media.

Driving Business Through Your Social Networks

I love to network.  I think I have been networking since I was in the third grade and introducing people to other people and looking for who had what in their lunch and who was looking to trade.  I am a bit older and I rarely find people looking to trade lunches, but I do find leads for my business and others through social network sites.   Networking online allows me to work a much larger lunch room and I make money versus Hostess cakes.

I have about 2400 contacts in my LinkedIn community and there is a fair amount of discussion on how to use LinkedIn or any social networking site to drive leads and increase your business.  I recommend that all users following five simple steps:

Understand the rules.
Social networks come with their own rules.  Be sure you understand what is acceptable in your communities.  On LinkedIn if you send an invitation to someone and they list you as “do not know” you will be unable to openly network without emails of the people you are trying to contact.  On Facebook not all of your discussions should be posted to walls, some require contact to contact messages.  You can often look at discussions posted online or in the FAQ section.

Build your profile as if you are building your website.
On LinkedIn your profile is not only a personal resume, but a resume for your business.  On Facebook you are walking a thin line of family, friends and business.  You can choose to have a personal page and a page for your business.  Keep an eye on what pictures you post on Facebook.  I cannot tell you how many small business owners loose business based on a picture they posted on Facebook (the holiday Christmas party should not be an open posting).

Start with the network you know. 
On LinkedIn you will need to just type in names in the search bar and request connections, on Facebook you can import your contacts from most webmail applications.  Add a personal note to each invitation.   Your note should include a short introduction from you, why you want to add this person to your network and why they should link to you.

Grow your contacts through open networking.
Move to the community that is available to you through your contacts.  On LinkedIn you can join the open networker groups (there are at least three) and you will receive invitations each time the new “invite me” list is shared.  On Facebook you can request anyone to be a friend, but the best way to grow quickly is to ask your friends to suggest contacts for you. 

Always ask for the business.
Anytime someone accepts your invitation or you accept theirs, follow up with a thank you note.  I suggest that you include not only your thanks, but what you are looking for business wise and ask what you can assist them with.

Wondering if it works?  I have driven more business in the last month through my LinkedIn contacts than I did on my last two direct mail campaigns.  By communicating in a personal manner both at the time of the invitation and when an invitation is accepted you create an active network.  Active networkers are open to growing business and will share leads with you if forward leads back out.   Next time we will discuss how to turn these conversations into active business.

After a year of campaigning, I am getting cranky with the whole deal.  Less than month to go and I am punch drunk - not to mention poorer thanks to the stock market.  Here are a dozen phrases or issues that I have had more than enough of hearing about.  Some of these are hardy perennials that come around every four years.  How about you?  Do you have a pet political peeve?  Send it in and I’ll post it here in the King Fish ThinkTank.  Click here for Part I
 

Wall Street vs. Main Street – Class warfare at its most insipid.  Didn’t Wal-Mart wipe out Main Street?  Shouldn’t it be Wall Street vs. the Mall?  It is silly when Obama is a classic cultural elitist and McCain is a very wealthy man.  Neither one of them is very connected to the working class family. 

My Plan – Every candidate crafts elaborate policy plans that become endlessly debated during the campaign.  These plans which are dutifully posted on their web sites are forgotten on Jan 20th.   None of them are realistic or have any chance of passing muster with Congress and the lobbyists who actually run Congress.  A giant waste of time for everyone involved. 

Scranton/Amtrak Joe Biden – Very tired of the way he has been reinvented into a blue collar guy.  He moved from Scranton when he was 10 - 56 years ago and has been in the cushy Senate since 1973.  I moved from Hollis, Queens when I was seven – that doesn’t make me a member of Run DMC.  Also, the train trip from DC to Wilmington, Del. is 80 minutes one way.  I used to commute for an hour each way on the Long Island Rail Road, where is my medal?
 

The Bridge to Nowhere – McCain talked about this snoozer endlessly during the primary and it picked up steam with Palin.  The media and Obama then went after it like it was a critical issue.  They actually started comparing it to John Kerry’s “I was for the war before I was against it.”  Not exactly the same scale and it serves to remind people how lame the last Democratic candidate was four years ago.
 

Talking Point Robots – It is infuriating how spokespeople and surrogates from each campaign go on cable news and just repeat the same talking points over and over no matter what question is asked.  Do they think they are fooling anyone?  My least favorite is the unctuous Bill Burton from the Obama campaign.  No matter what he is asked he blames Bush, ties Bush to McCain and closes with we can’t afford four more years.  He is very aggressive in his attempt to stick to his script.  The thought of him as Press Secretary in a potential Obama administration is too depressing for words.

Man Love for Obama – I can no longer watch MSNBC and witness Chris (my leg is tingling) Mathews and Keith Olberman moon over the O-man.  They are joined by a good number of their colleagues on every network except for Fox, of course.  I just don’t see it or find him all that dreamy.  Obama comes off to me like a humorless professor who looks down his nose at you because you don’t agree with him.  Has he cracked a single joke or delivered a laugh line in this entire campaign? Come on Barry, loosen up. Who knows, I guess he is likeable enough.

Less than 30 days to go and then we can turn our full attention to something that really matters – Football.  
 

For the next couple of weeks, I will be on Folio Magazine’s Marketing Excellence site under the “Ask the Expert” column.  It is an informative site, and I will also be contributing to the blog from time to time.  If you are in magazine marketing it’s a good resource that you should make one of your regular web stops.

Click here to check it out

After a year of campaigning, I am getting cranky with the whole deal - last night’s “debate” was a low point.  Time to scrap the fake “Town Hall” format.  It does not work.  Here are a dozen phrases or issues that I have had more than enough hearing about.  Some of these are hardy perennials that come around every four years.  How about you?  Do you have a pet political peeve?  Send it in and I’ll post it here in the King Fish ThinkTank.
 

This is the Most Important Election of our Lifetime– I have heard this one every four years since I have been following elections – back to 1976.  A sense of historical importance can only be determined when looking back with a greater context.  “The Most Important Ever” is a pretty high bar.  This may not even be a very important election in the long run.   With economy and Iraq a mess, the next President doesn’t have a lot of leeway to get things done.

Earmarks – Enough Mr. McCain, enough!  Nobody cares, nobody comes out to votes on the issue and it is inside baseball.  McCain should not waste valuable debate time rambling on about earmarks when he should be talking about how Obama’s philosophy on business tax is to the left of Castro.

I Love Israel- In every election the candidates bend over backwards to profess their undying love of Israel and the Jewish people.  (Translation:  We love all that Wall Street and Hollywood money.)  Who knew the goyim loved us so much.  In fact, Joe Lieberman is McCain’s BFF!  Too bad Joe and I can’t get into John and Cindy’s country club. (easy, its just a joke)

The Abortion Dance – A specialty among Democratic Catholics such as Joe Biden.  It goes like this – “Because of my faith I am personally against abortion, but I support a woman right to chose.”  Huh?  Either you are pro choice or you are not.  I have a feeling St. Peter isn’t going to buy this one either.

The 40 Million Americans Without Health Care - This group makes an appearance every four years, and not so much during the in-between years.  The Democrats always promise that they will insure them and make them the centerpiece of many a speech.  It will likely never happen since the 300 million who do have insurance are not interested in seeing a decline in service or quality to socialize healthcare.  We will be hearing about them again soon – in 2012.

The Pundit Parade – How sick are we of the same talking heads making the same comments on every cable news channel.  They are all there primarily to push their consulting business, speaking careers, books etc.  You know what they are going to say before they say it.   For how much longer is Paul Begala and James Carville going to be living off the fact they helped get Bill Clinton 43% of the popular vote in 1992.  How about Mary Matalin?  Her claim to fame is working for Bush 41’s unsuccessful reelection campaign, advising Dick Cheney and supporting Fred Thompson’s very brief presidential bid.  Well played Mary, well played.

Check back Friday for Part II

Dear Steve Schmidt, Chief Strategist McCain Campaign,

After watching Sarah Palin light it up against Biden and draw huge crowds this weekend, I feel compelled to give some you marketing and media advice.  Love how you energized McCain and pulled ahead after the convention, but it has been all down hill since then.  The bail out timing was a bad break, and no matter what happens now it is Bush’s fault and by association McCain’s.  That may have been a tipping point in a year that should be a Democratic layup equivalent to Carter’s post-Nixon/Watergate win.  The RCP poll average has you down six, but the numbers have been volatile and may not be that accurate.  You still have a chance, time to take the gloves off and hand the ball to your point guard – Sarah Barracuda Palin. 

Your media missteps nearly killed your hottest brand, but it is not too late to salvage it with a new custom media approach.  What you have pulled off so far is impressive. As Alaska’s Governor she had no reason to be expert on issues such as internal Iranian politics, nuclear proliferation and Wall Street regulation.  You had five weeks to prepare her to debate a guy in who has been in the Senate since 1973 in front of 70 million people and you did a decent job.  However, you messed up the press relations and almost sunk her (and your campaign) by feeding her to the mainstream media on their terms.

What were you thinking?  I admit I may have given the interview to Charlie Gibson, who knew he would be a condescending ass? However, feeding her to Katie Couric was criminal.  The entire concept of network evening news is old school and a relic.  It has not been relevant or important since the 80’s.  In today’s media landscape, the consumer is in control and news is a commodity that is available on demand, 24/7 on any platform. The idea of influential people sitting down to watch 22 minutes of news at 6:30 every night has gone the way of parachute pants and knit ties.

Let’s face it, the mainstream media (MSM) is in the tank for Obama and has shown a willingness to do his dirty work by attacking McCain and Palin.  What possessed you to give into them and send Governor Palin to be interviewed by a woman who is floundering with horrible ratings and is on the verge of being fired?   Couric’s back is up against the wall and you gave her a chance to matter again – and you gave her complete control over content, camera work and editing.  You made people talk about Saturday Night Live again for the first time since the days of Eddie Murphy playing Gumby, damn it. 

Did you cave from the pressure of the MSM?  Did you actually take them seriously when they said it was the role of the media to vet candidates?  I don’t recall reading that in the Constitution.  The coastal liberal elite think that people in flyover land are too dumb to decide for their own, so it is their responsibility to decide for them.  They decided this one back in January, ask Hillary.

Here at King Fish, we have a philosophy called Private Media.  You need to own your own private media channel, not rent the old one from the MSM.  I suggest you create the Sarah Palin channel, to talk directly only to the voters that matter – swing voters in the key swing states.  Forget the traditional media of the networks and print media; you don’t need them – not a bit. They are losing significance and influence in the lives of Americans.  It is not coincidence that the networks and newspapers are the ones whose business models are most under attack.  You can get better marketing ROI handing out flyers in front of Penn Station than advertising during NBC’s new shows (hey, let’s remake Knight Rider).  The New York Times and its junior varsity team The Boston Globe have turned themselves into daily Obama campaign bulletins.  Is it any wonder their profits and stock price are declining?  The Times is cutting costs, sections and staff while losing what was left of their objectivity.

It is time to keep Palin away from these faltering outlets and have her talk directly to voters.  You will take heat for this strategy.  A hue and cry will come from people in NY, Boston, and LA who mock and hate her.  Who cares, let the NPR crowd stew over their soy lattes; you have already lost those states.  Focus on your target market – swing voters in swing states who identify with her and feel she is “one of them”.   Let the voters decide on Nov. 4th and let the chips fall where they may.

You are sitting on a pile a of cash, so buy up half hour time slots in critical local market to run infomercials and promote the hell out of them.  Create the shows as town halls where people can see Palin speak directly to voters with no media filter.  Embrace social networking to a much greater extent than you have – go viral with web video in a big way.  Enlist word of mouth marketing with PTO groups and churches in Middle America. Try some live streaming video web casts with Sarah where she can answers question directly from voters, and not from agenda driven members of the media. 

The game is well into the 4th quarter, put the ball in her hands and have her attack and bust the zone.  You can’t wait for Obama to make a mistake; he won’t, he is too good a politician.  Have her hit him hard on Ayers, taxes, and “the white flag of surrender” in Iraq.  Sarah Palin needs to take her message directly to the right voters and forget about traditional media.  The web, live events, you tube, email and word of mouth will be your media vehicles.

It still may not be enough since it seems that a slim majority of American are ready to cast their lot with Obama because he is a blank canvas to where they can project their hopes, dreams and fears.  Look on the bright side; if you and Gov Palin (or Gov. Jindal or Gov. Pawlenty) takes him on in 2012 you will have an actual Obama record to run against instead of slogans and promises.  No matter what happens over the next four years, good or bad, you can hang it on him.  It may be fun to take the easy route, it has been for Obama.

I feel like the guy at the gym with a giant walkman instead of an IPOD.  Or the weird co-worker who doesn’t have cable TV.  Yes, until this week I was not on Facebook. I am not a total stooge, and am quite active on Linked In and really enjoy it.  I was under the mistaken impression that Facebook was not for business.  I was pretty wrong – just about everyone on my Linked In list has their own page.  At the urging of several marketing colleagues and my super terrific PR agency I took the plunge.  I have spent the last few nights at home reaching out to friends and business associates and fooling around with the site.  It is a world onto itself.  Linked In is a somewhat spartan, no frills all business site.   I spoke with someone recently who told me it is one of her best sources for leads.  It does the job but kind of dull – like a Toyota Camry.

Facebook is a strange mix of your personal and business life.  I am not totally sure I like that, but everyone else seems to be having a grand old time.   There are two ways that personal and business mix.  First, I have business contacts mixed in with people from my personal life – in my case from my gym (North Shore Cross Fit has it own group page) and some friends and family.  Secondly, the site gives you the ability to express yourself in all kinds of ways – music, movies, relationships, pictures and politics.  And, everything can be commented on – lots of witty banter.  I have already engaged in some fun back and forth with some radical leftist commie friends over politics.  It is all in good fun, but does everyone else who can read it know that? 

The other strange feature is the twitter like stream of consciousness that you can post on a regular basis.  So far it has been amusing because I know some very amusing people, but what is the purpose?  Like most social networking sites, it is a freaky intersection of narcissism and voyeurism.

However, I do like being in contact with past co-workers whom I really like but never have a real reason to talk to during a busy day.  I am going to jump in and hope that King Fish gets some business benefit out of the whole thing.  I will be watching it closely, and will report on its success as a business and marketing tool.  Hey, if you come by, friend me. 

Last week I had the pleasure of speaking at the Folio 08 Conference in Chicago.  It is billed as the national event for magazine professionals.  Ironically, there was not a lot magazine talk.  The big buzz was about web sites, lead gen, SEO, digital editions and face to face events.  I ran a lively and interactive session on B2B event models to a packed room.  It was clear that the “magazine” professionals are looking to extend their brand, and find new sources of revenue. 

While there was plenty of talk about web sites and events, it struck me that there was not a lot of focus on custom media.  The most valuable assets these media brands have are their circ files and the relationship their readers have with the brand.  Magazines can leverage that asset by creating custom media channels for their clients to talk directly to their readers.  Most are hesitant to do that for many reasons, but chief among them is a desire to stay within the paradigm they know so well.  It has been my experience that once you ask a traditional media person to shift away from running display ads, they get concerned.  It could be worries over editorial integrity, or the fact that selling run of book ads is so darn profitable they don’t want to give it up.  The fact is, selling print ads in a B2B publication is going to continue to be a challenge due to the obvious reason you can’t show measurable results.  And, there are so many great other options to generate ROI – web casts, lead gen, web sponsorships, events etc. 

Traditional media companies need to take a hard look at their business models and think about custom media as an integral part of the mix rather than an ancillary business.  When you get right down to it, marketers want your readers as customers and prospects.  The best way to survive this crazy market is to give it to them in as many ways as possible.