DVRs – a Disruptive Technology Leading to the Post Advertising Era

This recent Boston Globe article does a nice job out outlining how media companies and advertisers are dealing with the DVR phenomenon.  Currently, 20% of US household have one, and that is projected to rise to 35% by the end of 2011 –representing 40 million households. Of course, the issue is the fast forwarding and skipping of commercials.  Once you own a DVR, your days of being a slave to the TV schedule and watching endless commercials are over. 

The fact that 40 million affluent household will be skipping commercials is not good news to the ad supported networks and cable channels.  Nor is it great news for ad agencies that create and run commercials for their clients over expensive “rented” media channels provided by the networks.

The article points out several fixes and solutions the networks are trying to force people to watch commercials by running fixed logo, making some programs so you can’t fast forward them; and coming up with commercials within the actual program.  I will predict right now that all of these will all fail because of one basic fact – the consumer is now in control of their media choices; and they do not want their TV watching interrupted by commercials that have no relevance to them.

Try this small personal experiment and it will bring it to life for you – watch two hours of network TV shows that you usually watch and are basically aimed at your demographic.  Take note of the commercials and keep count of how many are:

1. Of completely no interest to you and something you would never buy for any reason.
2. Of such poor marketing quality, you don’t even know what they are selling or what the benefits of the product being advertised are.
3. Advertising a product category you do buy, but it is brand you would never switch to because you are satisfied with your brand or you don’t like the brand advertised.
4. Advertising a product you already buy or plan to buy.

I will wager that 90%+ of the commercials that you see in that two hour block will fit into one of those four categories.  Think of the wasted dollars spent reaching you and others who are skipping the commercials or don’t care about them.  This type of advertising is a vestige of the past when broad based media – TV, radio, magazines and newspapers were the only option.  You could do some audience targeting via MRI, Arbitron and Nielson, but it is more art then science, and the waste is incredible.  Also, this type of advertising has little or no accountability.  You really have no idea how and if it works.

The big media companies and ad agencies have a vested interested in keeping this system going even though it is not an efficient use of the client’s marketing dollars.  Granted, there is ego involved here on the client side – marketers and their CEOs like to see their ads running on famous shows where their family and friends can see them.  It’s like those corporate branding ads that run during the Sunday morning news shows.  Please write to me if you can name a greater waste of marketing dollars. 

We are heading to an inflection point in the advertising/marketing business where companies are going to eventually put a stop to spending their money in this manner.  They will turn to custom and private media solutions to generate new leads and create a meaningful dialog with customers.  The technological change over the past 10-15 years (Web, wireless, DVRs, iPods) has changed the game for the delivery of media and marketing messages.  Broad-based advertising has its time and place, but some of that money being spent to create glitzy commercials could be redeployed to market to the company’s database.  Companies who master their customer and prospect database can own their media channel rather than rent it; and create specialized private media communication and content for their best customers and prospects.  Owning your media channel will provide a tangible ROI for the bottom line rather than a commercial that rents network time and where the clear likelihood is for a skipped, ignored and expensive message.